Methodology for estimating SMSF illegal early access

How we calculate the estimate

Non-lodging SMSFs

We use a random enquiry program to calculate the estimate for non-lodging self-managed super funds (SMSFs).

The non-lodging funds' population for a financial year is based on the date of last lodgment and rollovers from other super funds.

We drew separate random samples from SMSFs that had:

previously lodged but failed to lodge in 2021–22 (lapsed-lodgers)
a rollover in 2021–22, but never lodged (never-lodgers).

We calculated the estimate for each of these sub-populations.

Lodging SMSFs

We based the estimate for lodging funds on analysis of auditor contravention reports (ACRs) received from approved auditors for the corresponding financial year. The analysis focuses on identifying the most common illegal early access types (payment standard breaches and loan-to-member contraventions). We added an audit non-detection amount to address the risk that approved auditors may not fully identify all instances of illegal early access.

Combining sub-population estimates

We step through the non-lodging funds method we applied below, and:

combine the estimates from the sub-populations in Table 2
lay out the method application for the lodging funds in Table 3.

Step 1: Determine if illegal early access occurred

We conduct audits on the sample of SMSFs to determine if illegal early access occurred. We review bank statements to identify specific payments. We compare assets in the fund to previous known values to identify unexplained reductions.

Step 2: Sum up individual illegal early access amounts

For lapsed-lodgers and never-lodgers, we separately add up the individual illegal early access amounts where they are greater than zero. We then calculate the average.

Step 3: Multiply average illegal early access by population

For both lapsed-lodgers and never-lodgers, we multiply the sample average illegal early access amount from Step 2 by the annual populations.

Step 4: Estimate non-detection

For lapsed-lodgers, we apply the other non-detection percentage to the result of Step 3.

Step 5: Combine population estimates

We add the lapsed-lodger and never-lodger population estimates (Step 3) and non-detection (Step 4). This gives us the total non-lodger population estimate.

The following tables show the dollar values at steps 1 to 5.

Table 2: Applying the non-lodging funds methodology
Step	Description	2019–20	2020–21	2021–22
2.1	Lapsed-lodgers sample average illegal early access	$4,322	$2,688	$2,638
2.2	Never-lodgers sample average illegal early access	$65,074	$31,666	$25,342
3.1	Lapsed-lodgers multiply sample average illegal early access by population ($m)	$50.0m	$58.5m	$58.9m
3.2	Never-lodgers multiply sample average illegal early access by population	$220.5m	$100.9m	$83.2m
4	Lapsed-lodgers non-detection	$12.4m	$15.0m	$25.6m
5.1	Lapsed-lodgers estimated population illegal early access	$62.5m	$73.5m	$84.5m
5.2	Never-lodgers estimated population illegal early access	$220.5m	$100.9m	$83.2m
5.3	Non-lodgers estimated population illegal early access (5.1 plus 5.2)	$283.0m	$174.4m	$167.7m
n/a	Non-lodgers theoretical total assets	$9,073.3m	$17,304.1m	$19,950.9m
n/a	Non-lodgers estimate ratio to total assets	3.1%	1.01%	0.84%

Note: The never-lodgers sample average illegal early access is lower in 2022 due to sample illegal early access amounts typically being smaller than in 2021.

Table 3: Applying the lodging funds methodology
Item	Description	2019–20	2020–21	2021–22
1	Estimated illegal early access from benefit payment contraventions	$35.8m	$30.0m	$23.9m
2	Estimated illegal early access from loans to members contraventions	$39.5m	$26.1m	$33.7m
3	Addition for non-detection	$21.9m	$25.6m	$24.7m
4	Lodgers estimate (1 plus 2 plus 3)	$97.5m	$81.7m	$82.3m
n/a	Lodgers theoretical total assets	$711.5b	$826.4b	$823.7b
n/a	Lodgers estimate ratio to total assets	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%

Find out more about our research methodology, data sources and analysis for measuring gap estimates.

Limitations

The following caveats and limitations apply when interpreting this estimate:

ACRs provide limited information on the events reported as contraventions.
Unrectified contraventions that occurred in previous financial years can be reported in the 2022 ACR. The methodology included a calculation to exclude payments that occurred in previous years from the 2022 estimate.
Approved auditors may not detect or not report contraventions (or both).
The methodology of the non-lodger estimate calculation excludes from the population SMSFs that ceased lodging prior to 2020.
ATO audits may not detect all instances of illegal early access.
Estimated non-detection amounts have been included to address identified limitations of the methodology.
Non-reporting in ACRs may also occur because only contraventions that meet the reporting criteria need to be reported.

For more information, go to Self-managed superannuation funds illegal early access.