Begg S, Vos T, Barker B, Stevenson C, Stanley L & Lopez A 2007. The burden of disease and injury in Australia 2003. Cat. No. PHE 82. Canberra: AIHW p 5.

Historically, growth in AWOTE has exceeded growth in CPI because wages growth on average has been higher than inflation. Based on this experience, the excise increase that will occur on 1 March 2014 under AWOTE indexation should be around nine cents higher per packet of 25 cigarettes than under CPI indexation.

Prime Minister, Treasurer, Minister for Health, Anti-Smoking Action, Media Release, 29 April 2010.

Australia: the healthiest country by 2020 Technical Report 2 Tobacco control in Australia: making smoking history including addendum for October 2008 to June 2009, Commonwealth of Australia 2009.

Council of Australian Governments. National Healthcare Agreement. 2012, Council of Australian Governments Canberra.

COAG Reform Council (2013). Healthcare 2011-12: Comparing performance across Australia, Report to the Council of Australian Governments, 30 April 2013. Available from: www.coagreformcouncil.gov.au.

Intergovernmental Committee on Drugs. 2012. National Tobacco Strategy 2012-2018. Commonwealth Of Australia: Canberra.

The final report of the Australia's Future Tax System Review (AFTS), 2011 Commonwealth of Australia 2011. Available from http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc+html/home.htm.

WHO Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-communicable Disease 2013-2020. Available from: http://www.who.int/nmh/events/ncd_action_plan/en/.

WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control Price and tax polices (in relation to Article 6 of the Convention) (Technical Report by WHO's Tobacco Free Initiative, 2010 FCTC/COP/4/11 15 August 2010, paragraphs 4-6.

WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic, 2009: implementing smoke-free environments . Geneva, World Health Organisation, 2009 and World Bank (1999) Curbing the Epidemic : Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control (Washington: World Bank).

The Health Consequences of Smoking - 50 Years of Progress A Report of the Surgeon General Executive Summary US Department of Health and Human Services Executive Summary Message from Kathleen Seblius. Available at: http://www.surgeongeneral.gov/library/reports/50-years-of-progress/index.html.

Price elasticity of demand is the proportionate reduction in consumption resulting from a 1 per cent increase in price. For example, a price elasticity of cigarette demand of -0.5 indicates that a 10 per cent increase in cigarette prices reduces overall cigarette consumption by 5 per cent.

Technical Report by WHO's Tobacco Free Initiative , 2010 paragraphs 4 to 6.

International Agency for Research on Cancer (2011). Chapter 7. Tax, price and tobacco use among the poor, in Effectiveness of tax and price policies for tobacco control, IARC: Lyon, France. Available from: http//www.iarc.fr/en/publications/list/handbooks/.

Chaloupka, F.J., A. Yurekli and Fong (2012). Tobacco taxes as a tobacco control strategy. Tobacco Control ; 21:172-180.

Prabhat Jha, Chaloupka, Frank J The World Bank Curbing the Epidemic Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control 1999 Washington DC, p. 6.

International Agency for Research on Cancer WHO IARC Handbooks of Cancer Prevention Tobacco Control Volume 14 Effectiveness of Tax and Price Policies for Tobacco Control 2011.

Gallet C and List J. Cigarette demand: a meta-analysis of elasticities. Health Econ 2003; 12:821-35.

Callison, K and Kaestner, R (2012), Do higher tobacco taxes reduce adult smoking? New evidence of the effect of recent cigarette tax increases on adult smoking, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Post-implementation Review 25 per cent tobacco Excise Increase The Treasury February 2013 p. 16 Available on the website of the Office of Best Practice Regulation. http://ris.finance.gov.au/category/post-implementation-reviews p. 25.

World Health Organisation Technical Manual on Tobacco Tax Administration 2010 Reprinted 2011, available from: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241563994_eng.pdf, p. 104.

World Health Organization (2013) WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic , 2013 , Appendix IX available from: http://www.who.int/tobacco/global_report/2013/en/index.html, Table 9.1. This percentage was calculated prior to the 1 December 2013 increase in tobacco excise.

Begg S, Vos T, Barker B, Stevenson C, Stanley L & Lopez A 2007. The burden of disease and injury in Australia 2003. Cat. No. PHE 82. Canberra: AIHW p. 5.

Begg S, Vos T, Barker B, Stevenson C, Stanley L & Lopez A 2007. The burden of disease and injury in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples 2003 (School of Population Health, University of Queensland p. 55.

The report is available at: http://www.surgeongeneral.gov/library/reports/50-years-of-progress/index.html, Executive Summary, p.4, para 3.

Ibid. Preface.

Doll R, Peto R, Boreham J and Sutherland I. 'Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors'. British Medical Journal, 2004. 328: 1519-33.

Sax Institute Media release. 2013. 'Even light smokers have double risk of early death, Australian-first research reveals'. Friday, 11 October 2013.

Viscusi WK and Hersch J. 2007. 'The mortality cost to smokers'. NBER Working Paper No 13599. National Bureau of Economic Research: Cambridge, MA. Available from: www.nber.org/papers/w13599.

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2010). How Tobacco Smoke Causes Disease: The Biology and Behavioural Basis for Smoking Attributable Disease. Fact Sheet. National Centre for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office of Smoking and Health. Atlanta. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/cessation/quitting/index.htm#benefits.

AIHW 2011 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey report 2011. Drug statistics series no. 25. Cat. No. PHE 145. Canberra: AIHW: p xii, p. 1.

Begg S, Vos T, Barker B, Stevenson C, Stanley L & Lopez A The burden of disease and injury in Australia 2003. PHE 82. Canberra: AIHW 2007.

Wills R and Coory M. Effect of smoking among Indigenous and non-Indigenous mothers on preterm birth and full-term low birth weight. Medical Journal of Australia. 2008;189(9): pages. 490-494.

National Tobacco Strategy 1999-2002-03 Fact Sheet The dangers of passive smoking Department of Health and Ageing Available from: https://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/.../tobpass.pdf.

Begg S, Vos T, Barker B, Stevenson C, Stanley L & Lopez A 2007. The burden of disease and injury in Australia 2003. Cat. No. PHE 82. Canberra: AIHW p. 5.

Collins D and Lapsley H. 2008. The costs of tobacco, alcohol and illicit drug abuse to Australian Society in 2004/05. Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra. p. 40, Table 13.

ibid .

ibid . p.65.

ibid . p.59.

ibid . p.67.

ibid . p.14.

ibid . p.3.

ibid . p3.

ibid . p.3.

ibid . p.6.

ibid . p.6.

ibid . p.50.

ibid . p.15.

ibid . p.16.

ibid . p.xi.

Hurley, S. Chapter 17: The economics of tobacco control, in Scollo, MM and Winstanley, MH [editors]. Tobacco in Australia: Facts and issues. 4th ed. Melbourne: Cancer Council Victoria; 2012. Last updated November 2011. Available from: http://www.tobaccoinaustralia.org.au/downloads/chapters/Ch17_Economics.pdf.

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Theadom A and Cropley M. Effects of preoperative smoking cessation on the incidence and risk of intraoperative and postoperative complications in adult smokers: a systematic review. Tobacco Control. 2006;15(5):352-8. Available from: http://tc.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/abstract/15/5/352.

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Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (2011) Public health expenditure in Australia 2008-09. Health and welfare expenditure series no. 43. Cat. no. HWE 48. Canberra: AIHW.

op. cit. Hurley, S. Chapter 17.

See Principles section of the WHO Guidelines for the implementation of Article 11 of the WHO FCTC Packaging and labelling of tobacco products. Full copy of the text can be found at http://www.who.int/fctc/guidelines/article_11.pdf.

Hammond, Fong, McNeill, Borland, Cummings. 2006 Effectiveness of cigarette warning labels in informing smokers about the risks of smoking: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey Tobacco Control 115 19-25. Available at http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/15/suppl_3/iii19.full.

Rabinoff M, Caskey N, Rissling A, Park C. Pharmacological and chemical effects of cigarette additives. Am J Public Health Nov 2007;97(11):1981-1991.

Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee Menthol Cigarettes and Public Health: Review of the Scientific Evidence and Recommendations. A report to the US FDA, 2011. Available from http://www.fda.gov/downloads/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/TobaccoProductsScientificAdvisoryCommittee/UCM269697.pdf.

King B, Borland R. The 'low tar' strategy and the changing construction of Australian cigarettes. Nicotine & Tobacco Research 2004;6(1):85-94. Available from http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all?content=10.1080/14622200310001656907.

Kozlowski & O'Connor. Cigarette Filter Ventilation is a Defective Design Because of Misleading Taste, Bigger Puffs and Blocked Vents. Tobacco Control 2002:11(Suppl I):i 40-i50.

ibid.

Weinstein, Marcus and Moser. 2005. Smoker's unrealistic optimism about their risk. Tobacco Control Vol 14 pp 55-59. Available at http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/14/1/55.full.pdf+html.

Weinstein, Slovic, Waters et al. 2004 Public understanding of the illnesses caused by cigarette smoking. Nicotine & Tobacco Research. 6(2) p349-355. AND Weinstein, Marcus and Moser. 2005. Smoker's unrealistic optimism about their risk. Tobacco Control Vol 14 pp 55-59. Available at http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/14/1/55.full.pdf+html.

Weinstein, Slovic, Waters et al. 2004 Public understanding of the illnesses caused by cigarette smoking. Nicotine & Tobacco Research. 6(2) pp 349-355.

Weinstein, Marcus and Moser. 2005. Smoker's unrealistic optimism about their risk. Tobacco Control Vol 14 p55-59. Available at http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/14/1/55.full.pdf+html.

Weinstein, Slovic & Gibson, 2003. Accuracy and optimism in smokers' beliefs about quitting. Nicotine & Tobacco Research. 6(Suppl 3) pp 375-380.

Eureka Strategic Research, 2005. Youth Tobacco Prevention Project. Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing available at http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/C0A3291951BC1115CA257BF0001D7925/$File/youth_research.pdf.

Eureka Strategic Research, 2005. Youth Tobacco Prevention Project. Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing available at http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/C0A3291951BC1115CA257BF0001D7925/$File/youth_research.pdf.

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Preventing Tobacco Use Among Youth and Young Adults: A Report of the Surgeon General. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office of Smoking and Health, 2012.

National Preventative Health Taskforce. 2009. Australia: the healthiest country by 2020, National Preventative Health Strategy - the roadmap for action 30 June 2009. Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra.

Fong, Hammond, Laux et al, 2004 The near universal experience of regret among smokers in four countries: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey. Nicotine & Tobacco Research. Vol 6 (Suppl 3) p341-351. Available at http://ntr.oxfordjournals.org/content/6/Suppl_3/S341.abstract.

Cooper, Borland & Yong. 2011 Australian smokers increasingly use help to quit, but number of attempts remains stable: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Study 2002-2009. Australian & NZ Journal of Public Health. Vol 35 no 4 p 368-376 available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1753-6405.2011.00733.x/pdf.

Cooper, Borland & Yong. 2011 Australian smokers increasingly use help to quit, but number of attempts remains stable: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Study 2002-2009. Australian & NZ Journal of Public Health. Vol 35 no 4, pp368-376 available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1753-6405.2011.00733.x/pdf.

US Surgeon General. 2010. How Tobacco smoke causes disease: The biology and behavioural bases for smoking-attributable disease. A report of the Surgeon General. US Department of Health and Human Services, p171.

Borland, Partos, Yong et al, 2011. How much unsuccessful quitting activity is going on among adult smokers? Data from the International Tobacco Control Four Country cohort survey. Addiction. Vol 107, pp673-682.

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. 2011. 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey Report. Drug statistics series no. 25. Cat no PHE145. Canberra: AIHW. p. 4. Available at http://www.aihw.gov.au/publication-detail/?id=32212254712.

US Surgeon General. 2010. How Tobacco smoke causes disease: The biology and behavioural bases for smoking-attributable disease. A report of the Surgeon General. US Department of Health and Human Services, p.105.

World Health Organization. 2008. MPOWER: A policy package to reverse the tobacco epidemic http://www.who.int/tobacco/mpower/mpower_report_six_policies_2008.pdf.

Gruszin, S, Hetzel D and Glover J. Advocacy and action in public health: lessons from Australia over the 20th century. Canberra: Australian National Preventive Health Agency, pp 118-120.

Gartner CE, Barendregt J and Hall W. Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia: how low can we go and by when? Tobacco Control 2009; 18: pp183-189.

Australian Government. Preventative Health Taskforce. 2009. Australia: the healthiest country by 2020. Technical Report No. 2. Tobacco control in Australia: making smoking history. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia.

Department of Health and Ageing. 2003. Returns on investment in public health: An epidemiological and economic analysis prepared for the Department of Health and Ageing by Applied Economics, p. 22. Available at: http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/8E28958A40B64604CA257BF0001A4CCF/$File/roi_eea.pdf).

As cited in Gruszin, S, Hetzel D and Glover J. Advocacy and action in public health: lessons from Australia over the 20th century. Canberra: Australian National Preventive Health Agency, pp127-128.

Jane M Young, Ingrid Stacey, Timothy A Dobbins, Sally Dunlop, Anita L Dessaix and David C Currow (2014). Association between tobacco plain packing and Quitline calls: a population-based, interrupted time-series analysis. MJA 2014;200:29-32 doi:10.10.5694/maja13.11070 Available at: https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2014/200/1/association-between-tobacco-plain-packaging-and-quitline-calls-population-based.

Collins and Lapsley, op. cit, p. 40.

AIHW 2011 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey report 2011. Drug statistics series no. 25. Cat. No. PHE 145. Canberra: AIHW.

Available at: http://www.cancervic.org.au/downloads/mini_sites/Plain-facts/analysis-kpmg-llp-report-illicit-tobacco-aust-2013.pdf.

The Protocol can be accessed at: http://www.who.int/fctc/protocol/illicit_trade/en/.

Scollo, M. Chapter 13, The pricing and taxation of tobacco products in Australia, in Scollo, MM and Winstanley, MH [editors]. Tobacco in Australia: Facts and issues. 4th edn. Melbourne: Cancer Council Victoria; 2012. Available from: http://www.tobaccoinaustralia.org.au/chapter-13-taxation.

Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. 2011. Supporting smoking cessation: a guide to health professionals. Melbourne: RACGP. Available from: http://www.racgp.org.au/your-practice/guidelines/smoking-cessation/.

Note that this is an example only, and the retail price varies between retailers. The figures in Table 1.6 indicate the amount of additional tax that will apply to a 25-pack of Winfield cigarettes in September 2014, 2015 and 2016, compared to the amount of tax that currently applies as of January 2014. The estimates in Table 1.6 also rely on no future changes to the current tax-exclusive price of a packet of Winfield Cigarettes. Although this is not a likely assumption, it is necessary for the benefit of this analysis. The estimated additional tax paid each year until 2016 does not take into account likely rises in cigarettes prices beyond the excise increases, which would further increase the GST payable and thus the total amount of tax paid.

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2011). 2010 National Drug Strategy Household survey report. Drug statistics series no. 25. Cat No. PHE 145. Canberra: AIHW.

2008 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey Cat. no. 4714.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics 2009.

ABS, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Survey: First Results, 2012-13 - Australia, released 27 November 2013. Table 10.3 Health Risk Factors. (NT: non age standardised ata has been used.).

Zeki R, Hilder L & Sullivan EA (2013). Australia's mothers and babies 2011. Perinatal statistics series no. 28. Cat. No. PER 59. Canberra: AIHW National Perinatal Epidemiology and Statistics Unit.

ABS (2008) National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing - Summary of Results 2007, 4326.0.

AIHW 2011 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey report 2011. Drug statistics series no 25. Cat no. PHE 145. Canberra AIHW.

AIHW 2011 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey report 2011. Drug statistics series no. 25. Cat. No. PHE 145. Canberra: AIHW.

AIHW 2009 A picture of Australia's children 2009, Canberra.

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2011). 2010 National Drug Strategy Household survey report. Drug statistics series no. 25. Cat. No. PHE 145. Canberra: AIHW.

International Agency for Research on Cancer, Chapter 7. Tax, price and tobacco use among the poor, in Effectiveness of tax and price policies for tobacco control 2011, IARC: Lyon, France. Available from: http://www.iarc.fr/en/publications/list/handbooks/.

Scollo, M., et al., Impact in Victoria of the April 2010 25 per cent increase in excise on tobacco products in Australia. Short-term effects on prevalence, reported quitting and, reported consumption, real cost, and price-minimising strategies, 2012, Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria: Melbourne, Australia.

International Agency for Research on Cancer, Chapter 3. Tobacco industry pricing, price-related marketing and lobbying, in Effectiveness of tax and price policies for tobacco control2011, IARC: Lyon, France. Available from: http://www.iarc.fr/en/publications/list/handbooks/.

Electronic cigarettes are devices for making mists for inhalation that usually simulate the act of cigarette smoking and are sometimes marketed as a tobacco replacement. Australian health authorities are concerned about the use of electronic cigarettes in Australia because of a lack of evidence on their safety and efficacy. The impact of wide scale use of these devices on tobacco use is not known, and the outcome in the community could be harmful.

KPMG LLP Strategy Group London (2013). Illicit Tobacco in Australia: 2013 Half Year Report (London: KPMG) p. 11.

(KPMG LLP Strategy Group London (2013). Illicit Tobacco in Australia: 2013 Half Year Report (London: KPMG) p. 10.

IBISWorld Smoked out: Rising health concerns and excise taxes affect industry revenue IBISWorld Industry Report C1220 Cigarette and Tobacco Product Manufacturing in Australia July 2013 p.5.

Cleo Fraser (2012) 'New Zealand boosts Australian tobacco exports', The Australian, Web Edition of 6 August 2012, and consulted on 21/1/2014.

IBISWorld Industry Report C1220 op. cit. pp.22.23.

IBISWorld Industry Report C1220 op. cit., p.4.

IBISWorld Industry Report C1220 op. cit., p.4.5.

IBISWorld Industry Report C1220 op. cit., p.4.

IBISWorld Industry Report C1220 op. cit., p7.

IBISWorld Going up in smoke: Demand suffers due to government reforms and health consciousness IBISWorld Industry Report F3606b Tobacco Product Wholesaling in Australia August 2013 p.5.

IBISWorld Industry Report F3606b ibid., p.5,6.

Post-implementation Review: 25 per cent tobacco excise increase op. cit. p.25.

IBISWorld Industry Report C1220 Cigarette and Tobacco Product Manufacturing in Australia July 2013 op. cit. p.5.

IBISWorld Industry Report C1220 Cigarette and Tobacco Product Manufacturing in Australia July 2013 op. cit.. p.8.

IBISWorld Going up in smoke: Demand suffers due to government reforms and health consciousness IBISWorld Industry Report F3606b Tobacco Product Wholesaling in Australia August 2013 p13,14.

ibid. p.5.

Deloitte, Illicit trade of tobacco in Australia, February 2010, 2011,2012.

Illicit Tobacco in Australia - 2013 Half Year Report, KPMG LLP October 2013.

KPMG report uses a wide range of data (including Nielsen, Euromonitor, Datamonitor, Exchange of Sales) and methods of validation (including Roy Morgan Research consumer survey, empty pack survey, rolling papers sales data, ACBPS seizures data and internal company intelligence data).

ACPBS Annual Reports 2009-10 to 2012-13.

http://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2013/06/22labour%E2%80%99s-attack-customs-makes-it-vulnerable-organised-crime.

http://www.customs.gov.au/aboutus/annualreports/2013/p2c.html.

ACBPS 2009-10 to 2012-13 Annual Report.

Chris Johnson, Canberra Times, Tuesday 2 November 2010 p 3.

ACBPS Intelligence and Targeting Division, Border Targeting, Illicit Cigarette and Tobacco Detection Summary January to June 2013 p 3.

Media Release, 'Trident Taskforce shuts down multi-million dollar tobacco importation syndicate', Australian Federal Police, 24 October 2013 - http://www.afp.gov.au/media-centre/news/afp/2013/october/media-release-trident-taskforce-shuts-down-multi-million-dollar-tobacco-importation-syndicate.aspx.

Radio interview, 3AW Melbourne, hosted by Neil Mitchell, 16 January 2014.

http://www.customs.gov.au/webdata/resources/files/ACBPSAnnualReport2012-13.pdf.

International Tax and Investment Center (ITIC), The Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products and How to Tackle It 2nd edition, p.9

http://www.smh.com.au/national/unchecked-cargo-stirs-fears-20111231-1pg9z.html.

KPMG, Illicit Tobacco in Australia, 2013 Half Year Report, October 2013.

ITIC, 2nd edition op cit.

The Centre for Public Integrity "Tobacco Underground" by Marina Walker Guevara (19 October 2008).

ASH factsheet on illicit trade (http://ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH 122.pdf.

ITIC, 2nd edition, op. cit.

Infoview Industry Exchange.

ibid .

Source: Neilson Australia - BATA Tobacco Industry Database.

Media Release, 'ABS CPI December quarter rises 0.8 per cent, Australian Bureau of Statistics, 22 January 2014.

TD Securities Press Release, 'TS Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge December 2013,' 20 January 2014.

'Afternoon Live, ABC News 24, 20 January 2014.

Refer to ABS webpage for more information: http://www.abs.gov.au/AISSTATS/abs@nsf/second+level+view?ReadForm & prodno=6401.0 & viewtitle=Consumer%20Price%20Index,%20Australia~Jun%202011~Previous~27/07/2011 & & tabname=Past%20Future%20Issues & prodno=6401.0 & issue=Jun%202011 # = & view= & .

'The Inflationary Impact of Tobacco Excise', Professor Sinclair Davidson, RMIT University, September 2013 http://catallaxyfiles.com/files/2013/09/The-inflatonary-Impact-of-Tobacco-Excise.pdf.